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Wednesday
Apr212010

My 2010 NFL mock draft or what I do in my spare time

In yet another of my personality quirks, I annually treat the NFL draft as a minor holiday and spend hours with my son Eli lining up our draft picks and projections for the Arizona Cardinals. This has evolved into our latest objective, which is to see which of us can get the most picks correct and top Mel Kiper Jr and Todd McShay in their projections, proving that our part time analysis is at least as good as their year round expertise. Lets face it, we work cheaper then they do, so lets see how our picks stack up this year:

 

Selection      Team                Mark                      Eli                Kiper                  McShay

1st              Rams             Sam Bradford                               Bradford

2nd             Lions           Ndamukong Suh                               Suh

3rd             Tampa          Gerald McCoy                                 McCoy

4th             Redskins       Trent Williams                              T. Williams

5th             Chiefs           Russell Okung                                Berry

6th             Seattle            C.J. Spiller                                    Okung

7th             Browns            Eric Berry                                     Morgan

8th             Oakland       Anthony Davis                                 Clausen

9th             Buffalo         Bryan Baluga                                   Davis

10th           Jaguars        Earl Thomas*                                  Spiller

11th           Bronco's      Maurkice Pouncey                            McClain

12th           Miami            Dan Williams                                   Kindle

13th           San Fran      Joe Hayden                                      Baluga

14th           Seattle         Dez Bryant                                      Thomas

15th           N.Y. Giants   Rolando McClain                              Weatherspoon

16th           Titans           Derrick Morgan                                Paul

17th           San Fran       Mike Iupati                                      Hayden

18th           Steelers        Kyle Wilson                                     Pouncey

19th           Falcon's      Jason Pierre Paul                               Graham

20th           Texans        Kareem Jackson                                Matthews

21th           Bengals      Jermain Greshom                               Bryant

22nd          Patriots      Brandon Graham                                Greshom

23rd           Packers      Rodger Saffold                                   Iupati

24th           Eagles          Tim Tebow**                                   Wilson

25th           Ravens         Jared Odrick                                    Thomas

26th           Cardinals    Nick Weatherspoon                          D. Williams

27th           Cowboys    Charles Brown                                  Saffold

28th           Chargers     Ryan Matthews                                Jackson

29th           NY Jets       Sergio Kindle                                     Joseph

30th           Vikings       Devin McCourtney                              Tebow

31st           Colts          Dymerious Thomas                             Hughes

32nd          Saints        Jerry Hughes                                      Odrick

 

The toughest calls are the Bills, who have an entirely new front office that has never drafted and the team is a mess, Jacksonville which clearly wants to trade down, Baltimore because they always pick the best talent regardless of need and Seattle because of two picks and a brand new staff in place drafting. I believe that teams will always reach for offensive tackles so expect all of the possible top talent to go quick and to even have a few filter into the end of the first round to restock Green Bay and Dallas. The run on offensive tackles is going to push Jimmy Clausen into a free fall if the Bills don't take him, which I pray they don't.

Seattle with their new front office is going to look to get good on one side of the ball and drafting where they are they need to get impact players. Grabbing CJ Spiller and Dez Bryant would give Pete Carroll his QB of the future and two big time home run threats to rebuild an anemic offense. They will go get their OT and defensive players in the later rounds.

Buffalo is in no man's land and will have to decide if they want to finally draft a real offensive tackle or grab a NT in Dan Williams that is solid but won't win them one extra game this year. Count on Chan Gailey pushing to build his offense and he needs a tackle badly.

Jacksonville will give Philly the chance to come up and get the impact safety they desperately need in Thomas and allow Jacksonville to move down the board and set up the Tim Tebow pick. He's not the best pick for anyone at that point, but he literally could be the reason football is saved in Jacksonville and the team isn't moved. It's a no brainer at that point in the big picture, much the way giving Jake Plummer a huge contract in Arizona was key in winning the  stadium tax vote that finally built the Cardinals new stadium. Economic reality often over rides football decisions and he could turn out to be a good pro quarterback.

Baltimore is slotted in every other mock draft as taking another receiver, which makes little sense given the off season trades. However, there will be talent there for the Ravens but I see them going defensive line or corner here with Jared Odrick looking like a Raven to me.

The Cardinals will have a choice between Sergio Kindle and Nick Weatherspoon, but I think they are happy with their picks last year, Cody Brown and Will Davis and that they know they have a huge hole at inside linebacker. Weatherspoon could start right away and dramatically upgrade the position by being a three down linebacker that fills the Dansby hole right out of the box with even more upside then Dansby had.

Anyway you look at it, the end of the round is a crap shoot, but I like my chances over McShay and Kiper, the one that will be tough to beat is Eli.

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